On July 31, 2024, at around 2:00am, Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. The incident occurred during his visit for the Iranian presidential inauguration and has been attributed to Israel by several officials, including those from Iran and the United States, though Israel has yet to claim responsibility. Haniyeh was killed while staying in a compound heavily protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), exposing a significant security failure by the Islamic Republic. The assassination occurred one day after the elimination of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr and preceded Israel’s confirmation of the death of Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’ military wing, marking a series of high-profile eliminations.

The Bottom Line

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran marks the continuation of Israel's efforts to eliminate key figures within its adversary's leadership, aiming to achieve Israel’s stated goals of eliminating Hamas’s military capabilities.
- Haniyeh’s death follows the elimination of Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr and the head of Hamas’s military wing Mohammed Deif.

The operations' success exposes significant security gaps within the Islamic Republic, which failed to prevent the assassination of a high-profile guest within a supposedly secure compound protected by the IRGC.
- Tehran had already been under heightened security measures due to the inauguration of Masoud Pezeshkian, yet reporting indicates that Haniyeh was killed by a bomb that had been planted in his room months before and remained undetected.

Ceasefire negotiations will likely pause until tensions cool, but Haniyeh’s elimination is unlikely to alter Hamas's stance or ability to negotiate, as whoever is appointed will continue to adhere to the organization's established objectives and will be as viable, or inviable, of a negotiating partner.
- Despite the removal of a prominent figure, Hamas’s objectives and tactics are expected to remain largely unchanged, as the organization’s structure allows for continuity in the face of high-profile losses.

Tehran has vowed to retaliate for the assassination, as Khamenei tweeted, “Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.”
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a G7 conference call on August 5 that Iran may launch a retaliatory attack against Israel within the next 24 to 48 hours.

The Assassination

The attack was reportedly carried out using an explosive device that had been covertly implanted in the guesthouse where Haniyeh was staying. The guesthouse, part of a compound known as Neshat, is located in an upscale neighborhood of northern Tehran and is managed and protected by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
- The bomb had allegedly been planted approximately two months prior to the assassination, suggesting extensive planning and intelligence gathering. This highlights a significant security lapse by the IRGC, as the device was placed in a facility presumed to be secure and reserved for high-profile guests.
  - The Telegraph reported that the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, hired Iranian security agents to plant explosives in three separate rooms of the Neshat compound. The original plan was allegedly to assassinate Ismail Haniyeh in May when he attended the funeral of Ebrahim Raisi, but the operation did not move forward at the time and was rescheduled for Pezeshkian’s inauguration.
- The New York Times reported that the explosive was remotely detonated at about 2:00am once Haniyeh was confirmed to be in his room. The precision of the attack minimized collateral damage, though a bodyguard accompanying Haniyeh was also killed. The blast caused a partial collapse of an exterior wall.
  - The leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziyad al-Nakhala, was staying in the room next door and was unharmed, further suggesting precise planning and targeting.

Israel has not publicly acknowledged responsibility for the killing, but Israeli intelligence officials briefed the United States and other Western governments on the details of the operation in the immediate aftermath, according to the five Middle Eastern officials.
- Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the United States had received no advance knowledge of the assassination plot.

The decision to eliminate Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran may have been a symbolic choice to underscore the relationship between the Islamic Republic and Hamas, highlighting the regime’s role as the principal force driving the group that committed the October 7 attacks, and to sow discord and fear within Islamic Republic officials by letting them know the regime cannot keep them safe in Iran.

What's Next?

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has vowed retaliation through a series of statements posted to X, formerly Twitter, writing, “The criminal, terrorist Zionist regime martyred our dear guest in our territory and has caused our grief, but it has also prepared the ground for a severe punishment” and, “...it is our duty to take revenge.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a G7 conference call on August 5 that Iran may launch a retaliatory attack against Israel within the next 24 to 48 hours.
- The commander of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Michael Kurilla, is expected to arrive in Israel on Monday to finalize preparations with the IDF ahead of a possible attack by the Islamic Republic.

On the morning of August 5, the Islamic Republic reportedly issued a NOTAM, a notice alerting an aircraft of dangers en route, for the center, west, and northwest of the country, advising aircraft to change their routes.