Brief Notes

E3 Reaffirms Snapback Ultimatum: The foreign ministers of France, the UK, and Germany have warned that if no satisfactory agreement on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program is reached by the end of August, they will trigger the snapback mechanism provided in UNSC Resolution 2231. The E3 affirmed their commitment to a diplomatic solution, but accused the Islamic Republic of violating its safeguard obligations by halting cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Islamic Republic officials have called the potential move “illegal” and have threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in response. Tehran-Baghdad Agreement Takes Aim at Kurdish Groups: An Iraqi security source told Shafaq News today that the recent Baghdad-Tehran security memorandum of understanding (MoU) aims to bolster border security, address the “Iranian opposition issue” in northern Iraq, and “prevent the replication of the Kurdistan Workers Party experience in the region.” The MoU includes intelligence-sharing mechanisms and joint patrols to counter armed groups in the two countries’ border areas. Signed on August 11 during Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani’s visit to Baghdad, the agreement seeks to enhance security and intelligence cooperation and, according to Larijani, ensure “no room for others to undermine the security” of either country.

Washington Criticizes Iran-Iraq Security Agreement

The U.S. State Department criticized the new security memorandum signed between Baghdad and Tehran, warning it contradicts U.S. objectives to bolster Iraq’s security institutions. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said Washington supports “genuine Iraqi sovereignty, not legislation that would turn Iraq into a client state of Iran.” In response, the Iraqi embassy in Washington issued a statement claiming that Iraq’s decision to sign the security agreement with Tehran “was not subservient to the policies of any country, and its decisions stem from its independent national will.” Also today, the Islamic Republic’s embassy in Baghdad condemned U.S. criticism, calling it “unacceptable interference.” The embassy accused Washington of seeking to create division among neighboring Muslim nations, describing the remarks by Tammy Bruce as proof of the U.S.’s “destabilizing approach” in the region.

Security Chief Arrives in Beirut

Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani arrived in Beirut today as part of his regional tour, after a two-day visit to Iraq. In Beirut, Larijani said he will “candidly” discuss “how to realize the national interests of the people of Lebanon” in planned meetings with senior Lebanese officials, including President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. The visit comes amid Lebanese plans to disarm Tehran-backed Hezbollah by the end of 2025. The Islamic Republic’s ambassador to Lebanon said the trip was occurring at a “critical moment in Lebanon’s history.” Larijani has condemned foreign pressure on Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, warning Lebanon against taking “orders” from the U.S. and Israel. After meeting Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Larijani said the Lebanese government should decide on the matter “in consultation with Hezbollah” and accused Israel of seeking, through diplomacy, what it failed to achieve in war. Larijani further declared the “Axis of Resistance” a movement that “rules the hearts” and therefore cannot be dismantled by external directives. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun told Larijani, “We reject any interference in our internal affairs, regardless of its origin, and we want the Lebanese scene to remain safe and stable, in the interest of all Lebanese people, without discrimination.” Lebanese media have reported that Foreign Minister Youssef Raji declined to meet Larijani, following his earlier criticism of the Islamic Republic's backing for Hezbollah.

Netanyahu’s Latest Message to Iranians

A video message posted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, which urged “the proud people of Iran to take to the streets” against the Islamic Republic and promised to share desalination technology with Iran “the moment the country is free,” has sparked strong reactions within Iran. President Masoud Pezeshkian dismissed Netanyahu’s video message in an X post, writing: “A regime that has deprived the people of Gaza of water and food wants to bring water to the people of Iran? What a mirage!” Pezeshkian further accused Netanyahu of “false sympathy” and a “policy of regional humiliation.” Many Iranian social media users responded positively to Netanyahu’s message, with one popular post claiming Netanyahu has become “the most popular foreign political figure in Iran.” Others echoed Netanyahu’s sentiments and cited his past meeting with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as a symbol of a potential future alliance. Pro-regime users dismissed the offer, highlighting Israel’s water shortages and using the moment to criticize President Masoud Pezeshkian. Prominent conspiracy theorist Aliakbar Raefipour claimed the message signaled Israeli plans to foment unrest inside Iran and at its borders in the near future.

On the Radar

At least three protests have taken place in Iran today. Those affected by a fraudulent construction project rallied outside the Public Prosecutor’s Office, accusing officials of neglect and of having financial connections with the project. Public preschool teachers protested outside the office of the Majles (Parliament) Deputy Speaker in Tehran, demanding the prompt formalization of their employment status. Separately, educators in Shirvan, North Khorasan Province, gathered outside the local governorate’s office to protest frequent, unplanned power outages, saying the disruptions have harmed not only education, but also daily life, causing significant financial and psychological damage.
Several contract workers at Razi Petrochemical Company in Mahshahr, Khuzestan Province, were abruptly dismissed last night after protesting wage discrimination and low salaries.
Following yesterday’s announcement that 21,000 individuals have been arrested by regime law enforcement since the beginning of the 12-Day War, Kerman’s provincial law enforcement stated that “at least 104 suspicious people have been arrested in Kerman” since the beginning of the 12-Day War.
IRGC-linked Tasnim News reported that law enforcement in Shahrud, Semnan Province, seized a shipment of 11,157 metal molds used in the manufacture of firearms. The provincial police chief said the molds were discovered in a van en route to Tehran from a northeastern province.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denounced Western sanctions as “crimes against humanity,” arguing they can be as deadly as war. In an English-language post on X today, he cited a Lancet study estimating over 500,000 annual deaths from international sanctions. Rejecting the notion of sanctions as a “bloodless alternative to war,” Araghchi urged targeted nations to coordinate a unified response.
Kenya has continued to express interest in expanding its partnership with the Islamic Republic despite a U.S. congressional review of Nairobi’s Major Non-NATO Ally status over its ties with Iran, China, and Russia. Kenyan Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadi posted on his social media account that Nairobi-Tehran “engagement goes far beyond maintaining the momentum of existing cooperation; it is about unlocking new opportunities and scaling our collaboration to greater heights.” The two sides agreed to set up a joint committee to remove trade barriers and resume Kenyan tea exports to Iran, halted by Tehran in 2023 over a $4.2bn corruption scandal.
The deputy head of the Air Quality and Climate Change Research Center at Shahid Beheshti University said that 35,540 people in Iran died last year from diseases linked to air pollution. He noted that past measures to curb pollution have been ineffective.

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