Latest NUFDI Publications

Outside Publication: IRGC moves to keep factions on message as Khamenei fades from view Policy Brief: E3 Prepared to Trigger Snapback by End of August Blog Post: The Execution Republic in Iran Gearing Up for Mass Murder

Brief Notes

Araghchi Rejects Concerns of U.S. Presence Near Border: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed domestic concerns over a potential U.S. military presence along Iran’s border with Armenia following a U.S.-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal. Araghchi said, “According to what Armenian officials have said, an American engineering company will carry out this work, and no American forces will be stationed there. Security will also be provided by Armenia itself.” Araghchi added, “What the Armenians tell us is that in this regard, they have observed and respected all of Iran’s red lines.” President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled to visit Armenia from August 18–21. Ukraine Strikes Ship Carrying Islamic Republic Ammunition: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine yesterday said, “The ship ‘Port Olya 4,’ loaded with components for Shahed-type UAVs and ammunition from Iran, was struck. The results of the strike are being verified.” This marks the first time that Ukraine has launched a drone strike on a vessel in the Caspian Sea.

Hezbollah Threatens Lebanon with Civil War

Secretary-General Naim Qassem of the Islamic Republic-backed Hezbollah accused the Lebanese government of making a “very dangerous decision that violated the coexistence charter and exposed the country to a major crisis.” Qassem said the cabinet was “implementing the American-Israeli order to end the Resistance, even if it leads to civil war and internal strife,” and urged the cabinet to “meet to plan to confront aggression, not hand over the country to the insatiable Israeli invader.” Qassem warned against “dragging the (Lebanese) army into internal strife” and vowed the group “will not hand over its weapons,” adding that Hezbollah would fight “a Karbala-like battle if necessary.” He said the government would bear “full responsibility for any strife” and noted Hezbollah and its allied party, Amal, had agreed to postpone street protests to allow “room for amendments.” Lebanese Environmental Minister Tamara al-Zein, a member of the Hezbollah-aligned Amal Movement, told Al-Jadeed TV that the Army will present its plan for the disarmament of armed groups, “namely Hezbollah,” on September 2, but “no one knows the contents of this plan.” Al-Zein was among the ministers who walked out of last week’s cabinet sessions that approved the U.S. proposal to disarm Hezbollah by year-end and solidify the ceasefire with Israel. The threats come while the Islamic Republic’s security chief, Ali Larijani, is visiting Lebanon, after a stop in Iraq. The trip is aimed at propping up Tehran’s proxy network in the Middle East, widely referred to as the Axis of Resistance.

On the Radar

Diaspora outlet Iran International says it has uncovered a cyber network, dedicated to targeting Iranian dissidents abroad, largely run by the Islamic Republic’s Ministry of Intelligence (MOI). The report alleges that a senior MOI official, already sanctioned by the U.S. over his involvement in plots to assassinate Iranian dissidents, and several MOI operatives are “key figures” in the group.
Friday Prayer Imam Mohammad Hassan Aboutorabifard warned that “any word that undermines national authority is unquestionably forbidden.” He stressed that “if we are not accepted as a power, [the U.S.] will never negotiate with us,” adding that Tehran’s “punishment and disciplining of Tel Aviv” helped secure the Islamic Republic’s current position. He urged that diplomacy should not become a venue for “petty political disputes.”
Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan Adylbek Kasymaliev met with the Islamic Republic's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref, who was in Kyrgyzstan to attend a meeting of the Intergovernmental Council of the Eurasian Economic Union as an observer. Kasymaliev welcomed the signing of a memorandum of understanding to establish a Kyrgyzstan–Islamic Republic investment office. In the meeting, Aref proposed resuming direct flights between the two countries to boost trade and economic ties.
Tehran Province will close its industrial parks for two days a week and limit evening operations to save energy amid severe summer shortages of electricity. Deputy Governor Heshmatollah Asgari said generators can only offset 40–50% of lost capacity, leaving production constrained. The measures follow nationwide water shortages and blackouts that have also forced repeated public office closures.

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