Brief Notes

Explosion in West Tehran: At 09:15 ET, images and videos emerged on social media of an explosion at a residential tower west of Tehran. The tower was built as part of a joint construction project between the Islamic Republic’s armed forces and the judiciary. The specific tower reportedly housed employees of the judiciary. State media claims that the explosion was due to a gas leak, with seven unnamed individuals injured. Speculation is rife that Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi died due to the blast. IRGC Claims to Bust Israeli-Linked Cells: The IRGC says it dismantled two “terrorist cells” allegedly tied to Israeli intelligence in the Sistan and Baluchestan Province. The IRGC Ground Force Quds Base in Sistan and Baluchestan claims that a safe house near Nikshahr and a network in Chabahar were uncovered, describing the groups as “well-trained.” Uranium Stockpile Whereabouts: A senior Israeli official claimed that the Islamic Republic’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, 400kg in total, were not moved from their Fordow, Natanz, or Isfahan locations before or after last month’s U.S. strikes on the regime’s nuclear facilities. The official added that the enriched uranium in Isfahan is technically accessible, “but it would be very difficult.” The official also said that Tehran was “racing to weaponize” with an “upward slope of speed” after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in September of 2024.

Tehran Sets IAEA Reengagement Conditions

President Masoud Pezeshkian today called on the IAEA to abandon its "double standards" as a precondition for Tehran to resume cooperation with the nuclear watchdog. Last week, Pezeshkian implemented a law suspending cooperation with the IAEA, prompting the agency to withdraw its last inspectors from Iran. He also warned that any future act of aggression against the Islamic Republic would be met with an even stronger and more “regret-inducing” response.

Back to Saber-Rattling

In separate phone calls with his Armenian and Venezuelan counterparts, Islamic Republic Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh claimed that the power of the regime’s strikes against Israel during the recent 12-day conflict prompted an Israeli ceasefire request. He reaffirmed the Islamic Republic’s readiness to deliver a response to any future threats from Israel and its Western allies, while also criticizing negotiations with the West as unreliable in light of recent attacks. Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Katz today said, “Israel’s long arm will reach you in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, and anywhere you try to threaten or harm Israel. There is no place to hide.”

Beijing Denies Arming Tehran

Earlier this week, Arab officials told Middle East Eye that the Islamic Republic is providing oil to China in exchange for air defense equipment. China’s embassy in Israel today denied the claims, telling Israel Hayom that it “never exports weapons to countries engaged in warfare” and enforces strict controls on dual-use items. The embassy added that China firmly opposes the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and is continuously strengthening its non-proliferation enforcement. China’s defense ministry has not yet commented.

Top Security Body Defends President Pezeshkian

The Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has ordered Karzar.net, an Iranian petition website similar to Change.org, to take down a petition “which called for the impeachment of President Pezeshkian,” says Karzar’s CEO Hamed Bidi. The SNSC is tightly controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who appoints the secretary of the Council, although Pezeshkian serves as the more ceremonial chairman. Pezeshkian has come under fire from rival political factions since the ceasefire with Israel went into effect on June 24. Meanwhile, 24 members of the 290-member Majles (parliament) have issued a letter criticizing Pezeshkian’s interview with Tucker Carlson, accusing him of speaking “from a position of weakness” and undermining the alleged “unprecedented unity” between the people and the regime in confronting Israel and the United States.

London Raises Alarm Over Tehran’s Threat on Homefront

The British Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) has concluded that the threat posed by the Islamic Republic to the UK is on par with that of Russia, citing a pattern of cyberattacks, espionage, and intimidation of dissidents. The report warns that both the regime itself and proxy actors are actively targeting the UK’s petrochemical and financial sectors, while exiled Iranian journalists and activists, especially those covering anti-regime protests, face increasing danger. London-based diaspora news outlets such as Iran International, BBC Persian, and Manoto remain key targets of the regime, with staff and their families recently subject to increased harassment. The findings also underscore the regime’s nuclear potential, noting that while Tehran retains the ability to weaponize its program quickly. The Committee urged the Home Office to consider designating the IRGC as a terror entity. Read NUFDI’s report to learn more about the Islamic Republic’s influence campaign in the UK.

Forex, Stock Markets Deep in Red

The spokesperson for the Islamic Republic Majles (parliament) Economic Commission announced that several individuals allegedly linked to Israel have been identified and arrested for creating turmoil in the forex and gold markets. The individuals are accused of using large sums of money to deliberately destabilize the markets. Similar allegations have been used in the past by the state in reaction to economic crises. Meanwhile, Shargh Daily reported that the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) allocated 600 trillion IRR (approximately $1.2 billion) to propping up the forex market and Tehran Stock Exchange to curb currency devaluation and reduce the outflow of funds from the stock market. The stock market closed on Wednesday with a significant drop in overall value, prompting protests from shareholders.

On the Radar

The Islamic Republic’s Foreign Ministry today confirmed the arrest of a French-German cyclist on “espionage” charges. Earlier this month, two French nationals were also charged with espionage and “corruption on earth,” both of which are capital offenses under Islamic Penal Law. France has reportedly tied its stance on triggering the UNSCR 2231 snapback mechanism to Tehran’s release of the two hostages.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz will travel to Washington next week, with talks expected to focus on the Islamic Republic’s threat.
An Israeli man was indicted for spying for the Islamic Republic after allegedly communicating with an Iranian handler via Telegram for four months. Prosecutors say he received $9,000 in cryptocurrency to carry out tasks such as spraying political graffiti, burning IDF uniforms, and leaving cash in public places.
In an interview with pro-Hezbollah outlet Al-Mayadeen, Tehran-backed Hezbollah’s deputy leader rejected any foreign pressure to disarm, saying, “Weapons are what keep Lebanon strong.” He declared the group had “fully recovered” from its recent conflict with Israel and is now “fully prepared” for renewed battle.
According to UNHCR reports, over 1.2 million Afghans have returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan in 2025.

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