Brief Notes

Blinken Claims Tehran Accepted Under 1% Enrichment Before U.S. Strikes: In an interview with CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour, former Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed that, before U.S. strikes on regime nuclear facilities, Tehran had told European diplomats that it was willing to limit uranium enrichment to under one percent and had signaled willingness to negotiate about limits on its missile program. He added that Tehran is no longer engaging on these questions and is thus more likely to pursue a nuclear weapon. The claim contradicts Tehran's publicly stated redlines and, if true, might have been a calculated feint in the talks to buy more time. The Trump administration is yet to react to the claims. Influential Outlet Threatens Persian Gulf States: Nour News, affiliated with Ali Shamkhani, former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, posted on X: “Believing in the lie that attacking a country, which is a pillar of the intertwined security of the Persian Gulf, has no impact on regional security is extremely dangerous. It seems that the attack on the American base Al Udeid was a historic event with a significant geographical message. The Persian Gulf has always been a stage for major surprises.” Taliban Calls Islamic Republic Treatment of Afghans ‘Inhumane’: The Taliban has accused the Islamic Republic of intentional mistreatment of Afghan migrants, calling the regime "inhumane" and warning of potential damage to bilateral ties. Taliban-controlled media reported that the Islamic Republic deported more than 500,000 Afghan migrants over the past three weeks.

E3 to Initiate Snapback by End of August

The United Kingdom, France, and Germany will initiate UNSCR 2231’s snapback mechanism by the end of August if no significant progress is made towards a nuclear deal by then, according to French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot. In response, Islamic Republic Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei warned that the regime would respond to any reimposition of U.N. sanctions over its nuclear program, without specifying what measures Tehran might take. Baghaei further claimed that “the so-called snapback mechanism has no legal or political basis.” Today, the EU also sanctioned eight Iranian nationals and one entity allegedly responsible for the targeting of Iranian dissidents in Europe.

Tehran Seeks Support from Shanghai Cooperation Org

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is attending a foreign ministers’ meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in China. He held a “brief bilateral discussion” with Chinese President Xi Jinping this morning on the sidelines of the event. In separate discussions with his counterparts from Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan throughout the day, Araghchi condemned the United States and Israel for their recent military strikes in Iran, accusing the U.S. of failing to uphold its commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). He further called on member states to make “a decision to provide the necessary political support and other related assistance to the Islamic Republic of Iran, against its adversaries, as soon as possible.” During Araghchi’s meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the two discussed “realistic approaches to ensuring a solution that would be achieved through peaceful political and diplomatic means.” Lavrov also claimed that “no evidence” has been presented “by anyone, including the IAEA,” indicating that Tehran was in violation of its international commitments.

Regime Crackdown Targets Marginalized Groups

In a continuation of the regime’s targeting of marginalized groups, security forces arrested four citizens in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province, and transferred them to an unknown location. Security forces also arrested four in the primarily Iranian Kurdish populated parts of West Azerbaijan Province yesterday. The reasons for their arrests and their whereabouts remain unknown. The IRGC announced on social media that 18 Afghan nationals were arrested in Mashhad for allegedly constructing surveillance and explosive drones linked to Mossad. The Prosecutor’s Office of Yasuj, located in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, announced the arrests of several citizens on charges of alleged collaboration with Israel. Security forces in Delfan, Lorestan Province, announced the arrest of a citizen for allegedly sharing “criminal and norm-breaking content” online. The individual's social media account was deactivated, and the case was referred to the judiciary. Last night, security forces arrested Sajjad Haeri, brother of political prisoner Ahmadreza Haeri, in Damavand, Tehran Province, and transferred him to an unknown location. Leila Mahdavi, mother of Siavash Mahmoudi, a slain protester, has been summoned to the Tehran Prosecutor’s Office. Security forces arrested Ehsan Khazaei, brother of slain protester Erfan Khazaei, along with his wife Neda Karegar, and transferred them to an unknown location. Bakers in Tehran, pensioners in Rasht, university staff in Iranshahr, municipal workers in Shadegan, and housing applicants in Arak held demonstrations focused on economic and workplace grievances.

On the Radar

Today, the FBI released images of three Islamic Republic officials, Reza Amiri Moghadam, Taghi Daneshvar, and Gholamhossein Mohammadnia, allegedly involved in the 2007 abduction of retired FBI agent Robert Levinson from Kish Island, south of Iran. The FBI believes Levinson likely died in the regime’s custody and has vowed to continue pursuing all those involved. All three men were sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in March for their roles in the abduction and subsequent cover-up.
Jaish al-Adl, a jihadist group operating in Balochi-populated areas of Iran and Pakistan, has vowed revenge after several of its members were killed in a raid by Islamic Republic security forces. On July 11, the group carried out an attack in Chabahar, claiming to have killed multiple IRGC officers. The group’s media arm released footage of the assault on July 13.
Isfahan Province is facing ongoing air pollution intensification as the Montazeri Power Plant in the area continues to burn Mazut, low-quality bunker fuel, 64 days after officials claimed its use would be a temporary measure taken during gas line maintenance.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reappointed Alireza A'rafi, Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani, and Ahmad Khatami to the Guardian Council for six-year terms as part of the Council’s routine appointment cycle.
The Supreme Leader’s official English Telegram channel shared a previously unpublished interview with deceased IRGC Aerospace chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh, in which he says, “We were working to increase missile speed, but Imam Khamenei emphasized prioritizing precision.”
The interior ministers of the Islamic Republic, Pakistan, and Iraq held a press conference in Tehran, where Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqv reaffirmed Islamabad's support for Tehran's “right to self-defense.”
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani today warned that another Israeli attack against the Islamic Republic is probable, accusing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of fueling instability for political gain.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei condemned Israeli strikes in Syria's Suwayda Governorate. He added that the "persistent inaction" of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is dangerous, as it has emboldened Israel.

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