Brief Notes

U.S. Pressure Halts Ashgabat–Tehran–Baghdad Gas Deal: Turkmenistan’s plan to export natural gas to Iraq via Iran has collapsed after the U.S. warned it would sanction any banks involved in the deal. The arrangement, signed in July 2024, envisioned Turkmen gas flowing to northern Iran, which would send an equivalent volume from its southern fields to Iraq under a swap mechanism. Baghdad had finalized import procedures and held multiple rounds of talks with Ashgabat, but suspended the contract following Washington’s warning. U.S. officials reportedly viewed the deal as a “significant transaction” benefiting the Islamic Republic’s energy sector by freeing domestic resources for export.

Islamic Republic Celebrates October 7

Today, the Islamic Republic’s state media openly celebrated the second anniversary of Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel. Some newspapers and broadcasters in Tehran glorified the attack. The Tehran municipality-run Hamshahri daily labeled October 7 “victory day,” featuring Hamas slain leader Yahya Sinwar on its front page and claiming that “Sinwar’s October 7 epic awakened the world.” State-run Jaam-e Jam described October 7 as “the day of catastrophe for the Zionists,” while Supreme Leader-controlled Keyhan declared that the operation “foiled U.S.-Israeli plans” for the region. Former Islamic Republic ambassador to Afghanistan Hassan Kazemi Qomi boasted on state TV that Israel was “humiliated” during the attack and had “failed to fulfill its objectives despite ample U.S. support.” Former spokesperson of President Ebrahim Raisi's administration (2021–2024), Ali Bahadori Jahromi echoed this narrative, boasting that the attack “nullified the legitimacy of Israel in the world despite the lack of expected support from the Islamic world.” Meanwhile, a student of Yazd University was expelled for tearing apart a poster on campus that was glorifying the October 7 attack. Other Iranians on social media expressed that October 7 showed the world what “barbarism” is, while others claimed that the repercussions of the attack are currently bringing an end to the Islamic Republic. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi wrote on X: “October 7, 2023, marked unspeakable horror in Israel. The same evil that murdered Kfir, Ariel, Shani, Maya, and Hersh also silenced Mahsa, Neda, Nika, Pouya, and Kian. From the shared pain at the hands of the Islamic Republic and its terrorist puppets, we will build a shared future between our nations. Light shall triumph over darkness! My deepest condolences to the victims and their families. May all hostages return home swiftly.”

Forced Confession Aired on State TV Amid Crackdown

Yesterday, state-run broadcaster IRIB broadcast a video of the forced confession of Amirhossein Mousavi, a political detainee held in Evin Prison due to comments made on X. IRIB attempted to portray Mousavi as having engaged in espionage on behalf of Israel. The IRIB segment linked him to alleged intelligence exchanges with Israeli-affiliated individuals during the 12-Day War, even though his arrest took place approximately six months before the conflict began. Additionally, on October 4, the Judiciary announced the execution of seven individuals on charges of espionage and Moharebeh (enmity against Allah). This announcement came just days after another execution on September 29, also carried out on alleged espionage charges. Today, Chief Justice of the Islamic Republic Gholam Hossein Mohseni Eje'i warned Judiciary officials that there are dissident groups actively operating in Iran. He said, “There are groups that seek to act in alignment with the enemy on issues such as price gouging, hoarding, anti-religious and anti-cultural activities, and social disorder. We must all remain vigilant. Prosecutors, judges, and every one of us must work together to ensure that the enemy fails in these areas as well.”

On the Radar

Ahead of an upcoming meeting of Caspian Sea naval commanders in St. Petersburg, Artesh Navy Commander Shahram Irani visited two Russian Navy museums in Russia. Coverage claimed that during the visit, retired Russian military officer Konstantin Georgiyevich remarked on the 12-Day War, saying, “When we saw Iran strike Israel with a powerful and crushing fist, we were very pleased. We are happy about your military advancements, and I personally, as a retired officer, always follow your progress.”
The Foreign Ministry condemned an October 6 joint EU–GCC statement that recognized the UAE’s claim to Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf, and urged Tehran to curb missile and drone production. In a post on the Foreign Ministry’s Telegram channel, spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei reaffirmed the Islamic Republic’s position, insisting on Iran’s “undisputed and permanent sovereignty” over Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa.
Two IRGC officers were killed and three were injured during a clash with a “counter-revolutionary group,” likely an armed Iranian-Kurdish organization, in Iran’s Kurdistan Province on October 6.