Brief Notes

Tehran Claims Israel is Eager for New War: In a September 27 televised interview, a member of the Supreme Leader-appointed Expediency Council and senior IRGC officer, Mohsen Rezaei, said that after the activation of the “snapback” mechanism and the return of UN sanctions, there is a high probability of another Israeli strike on the Islamic Republic. He continued, “They are looking to try their luck against Iran once more.” Rezaei, who appeared in an IRGC uniform during the interview, claimed, “In the recent war, we had prepared ourselves for at least two months of fighting, and that is why we used only 30 percent of our capabilities.” Supreme Leader’s Military Advisor Claims 12 Israeli Pilots Killed: Senior Military Advisor to the Supreme Leader for Military Affairs Yahya Rahim Safavi claimed that Islamic Republic forces killed at least 16 Israeli pilots during the 12-Day War. He added, “Israel, while seeking to continue the war, ultimately faced a strategic defeat and was forced to request a ceasefire through the United States, an action that demonstrated the Zionist regime’s inability to withstand the capabilities of the Axis of Resistance.” Rahim Safavi also said, “The best defense is offense, and if we want peace, we must be prepared for war, because if we are strong, the enemy will not come after us. That strength is not limited to military capability.” During the 12-Day War, Islamic Republic media personalities also falsely claimed that the IRGC had downed an IDF fighter jet. Tehran Executes Tenth Alleged ‘Israeli Spy’ Since June: The Judiciary’s news outlet, Mizan, reported that a “trusted spy” of Israel, Bahman Choubi Asl, was hanged this morning, bringing the number of executions carried out for alleged espionage since the 12-Day War to ten. Choubi Asl worked in Iran’s tech sector and allegedly assisted Mossad in breaching several Islamic Republic databases. Regime Warns Domestic Media Against Publicizing Snapback Impacts: The Office of Tehran Public Prosecutor Ali Salehi issued a statement saying that any news agency or Telegram channels that publish analysis or news regarding the impact of sanctions will face legal consequences. The statement says, “Given the current circumstances in the country, media outlets must exercise full caution and accuracy in publishing news and not allow their output to become a source of disrupting the public’s psychological security.” It added, “Any violations by the media will be met with appropriate action.” Pezeshkian Unaware of Khamenei Speech: Iran International reported that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei instructed President Masoud Pezeshkian, before his trip to the UN General Assembly, that he could hold private meetings with the U.S. and seek a new agreement. However, unexpectedly to Pezeshkian, Khamenei delivered a public speech rejecting any negotiations with Washington as the President was traveling to New York. The report further states that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a closed-door meeting with Iranian experts and academics, said, “The only way to stop the snapback was direct talks… But we are not allowed to engage.”

UN Sanctions Reinstated on the Islamic Republic

The E3 (the UK, France, and Germany) released a letter on September 28 announcing that UN sanctions on the Islamic Republic were reinstated as of 20:00 EDT on September 27, following the expiration of the 30-day review period initiated by the group. In response, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi released an open letter to his UNSC counterparts, in which he wrote, “Recent claims by the [U.S. and the E3] that the United Nations Security Council resolutions, previously terminated under Security Council resolution 2231 (2015), have been ‘restored’ through the so-called snapback mechanism are entirely unfounded, unlawful, and invalid. These assertions must be rejected in their entirety.” President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the reinstatement of UN sanctions as an effort to bring Tehran to “its knees,” adding, “The idea that they can bring Iran and our people to their knees is nothing more than a dream.” Members of the Majles (Parliament) dismissed the sanctions as a “psychological operation,” with one parliamentarian stating, “An atmosphere of psychological warfare has been created by the Americans and Zionists, unfortunately with the cooperation of some Western-oriented elements inside the country… spreading claims that this and that will happen.” State media continues to downplay the impacts of sanctions, emphasizing that different branches of the government have a “unified response” to the measures, and that China and Russia are “standing by Iran.” Internationally, pan-Arab channels offered mixed views on snapback. Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya led coverage, with analysts saying Tehran’s options were “limited” but diplomacy remained possible. Saudi journalist Jasser al-Jasser insisted “the door to diplomacy is still open,” while pro-Tehran academic Hossein Ruyuran argued sanctions would have little economic impact beyond a “psychological” hit, citing the rial’s fall. Several domestic newspapers reported that the Majles is reluctant to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a step pushed by some members in response to snapback sanctions. Other members are claiming that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf blocked the issue from reaching the agenda due to his ties to President Pezeshkian and the “reformist” faction. Meanwhile, snapback has reignited criticism of the administration of former President Hassan Rouhani (2013–2021), during whose tenure the JCPOA was signed. Rouhani, in response, asked for a televised debate with his critics.

On the Radar

IRGC-linked Meshkat Media reported that, during the 12-Day War, the Artesh (conventional/“regular” armed forces, as opposed to the IRGC) Air Force made extensive use of Arash long-range drones in “deception operations.” The report says, “these drones were primarily employed to distract and push back parts of the enemy’s air fleet, with Artesh Air and Ground Force drone pilots playing key roles in the missions.”
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued a statement reasserting its claim over the three Persian Gulf islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa, saying, “The ministers reiterated their support for the United Arab Emirates.” In response, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei dismissed the claims as “baseless” and reiterated that “the islands are an inseparable part of Iran’s territory.”
The Judiciary has arrested an Instagram user for allegedly promoting Jaish al-Adl. The Public Prosecutor of Kerman Province said, “Following continuous monitoring of cyberspace by intelligence and security forces, an individual identified as ‘M.M.,’ known by the alias ‘Arsalan Sarbazi,’ who was engaged in promoting, supporting, and calling for cooperation with the terrorist groups Jaish al-Adl and Ansar al-Furqan on Instagram, was identified and arrested.”
The police in Alborz Province announced that they had discovered and seized 1,475 kilograms (3,252 pounds) of methamphetamine and heroin hidden inside a commercial heavy truck. The head of the provincial police claimed the shipment originated from “a neighboring country.” He added: “Various types of narcotics have been discovered and seized in Alborz Province, marking a 48 percent increase compared to the same period last year.”
The Taliban has called on countries housing Afghan refugees to halt the deportation process. The Taliban Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation says, “We have told the countries, including Iran, that deporting refugees violates international laws. They should reach an agreement with the Islamic Emirate [Taliban administration] of Afghanistan and establish a joint mechanism to facilitate Afghans' dignified return home.”
On September 26, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam intervened after Tehran-backed Hezbollah defied a ban by projecting images of slain leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine onto Beirut’s Pigeons’ Rock. Salam convened key ministers, ordered measures including arrests, and pledged legal consequences. The event featured remarks from Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Islamic Republic’s Supreme National Security Council, who said that recent events, including the Israeli attack on Hamas in Qatar, had revealed Israel’s conduct “more clearly to all,” and claimed Nasrallah’s warnings about regional vulnerability to Israeli aggression had been “proven right.”