The Bottom Line

President Trump’s memorandum revives the maximum pressure framework, targeting Iran’s oil exports and limiting any financial relief the regime enjoyed under the Biden administration.
- Under NSPM-2, the Secretary of the Treasury must carry out a “robust and continual sanctions enforcement campaign,” and the Secretary of State must “implement a robust and continual campaign to drive Iran’s export of oil to zero,” signaling the administration’s intent to use every available measure to choke off the regime’s oil revenue.
- By reimplementing its “maximum pressure” campaign, the Trump administration is sending a clear message to Tehran: without genuine steps to dismantle nuclear and missile programs and end proxy-driven destabilization, the regime risks further isolation and a crippling squeeze on its already precarious economy, placing it in a position vulnerable to external attack and internal dissent from the Iranian people.

The president’s announcement occurred alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s White House visit, underscoring renewed U.S.-Israeli alignment against Tehran.
- Israel’s ongoing strikes over the last 15 months have already degraded Iran’s regional capabilities, crippling parts of Iran’s missile-defense and nuclear infrastructure. The destruction of key Iranian missile defenses and mixing equipment has left the regime vulnerable to future precision strikes, limiting its retaliatory options if it chooses escalation.
  - With Washington’s reimposed sanctions, Tehran faces a synchronized push from both the U.S. and Israel that could further limit its freedom to operate.

Now is the time to provide low-cost, efficient support to the Iranian people in their fight against the Islamic Republic.
- The Administration should, alongside the measures of the maximum pressure campaign that were reinstated on February 4, reimplement its previous public diplomacy strategy to highlight the regime’s human rights abuses, supporting the aspirations of Iranians who oppose the regime’s policies, and motivating the Iranian people to carry out their democratic will.

The Memorandum: NSPM-2

A Broad, Interagency Mandate
- NSPM-2 instructs the Secretaries of State, Treasury, Defense, Energy, Commerce, and other senior officials to reinforce sanctions, investigate Iranian terror-financing networks, and stop the regime’s oil trade worldwide.
- The memorandum reaffirms the U.S. policy objective of denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon, including ballistic and cruise missile development.

Snapback of International Sanctions
- President Trump has instructed the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations to work with allies to initiate the ‘snapback’ mechanism to reimpose international sanctions and restrictions on Iran.
- Since the United States withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, it cannot unilaterally trigger the mechanism. The success of this effort depends on securing the cooperation of key European allies—specifically the UK, France, and Germany—who retain the standing to formally invoke snapback as remaining participants in the nuclear deal.

Potential for Diplomatic Engagement
- The regime’s track record of ramping up enrichment, sponsoring proxy attacks, and evading sanctions could undermine any chance for near-term diplomatic breakthroughs unless Tehran shows verifiable concessions.

Netanyahu’s Washington Visit
- Prime Minister Netanyahu praised the renewed U.S. stance on Iran and highlighted Israel’s role in weakening Tehran’s regional capabilities through repeated strikes against Iranian assets and proxies.
- Trump and Netanyahu’s public show of unity is a clear signal: Israel’s military operations and the United States’ economic sanctions will now function more cohesively in pressuring Iran.

The Islamic Republic’s Weakening Regional Posture
- In addition to the assassination of key leaders from Hamas and Hezbollah, multiple strikes have damaged Iran’s missile-defense and nuclear infrastructure around Tehran. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has further limited Iran’s access to a once-useful transit route for arms.
- As the regime grapples with financial stress at home, its ability to finance regional proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis—will continue to diminish under tighter sanctions.

Iran’s Nuclear Program
- Though President Trump expressed openness to dialogue on a nuclear deal, citing a desire to avoid a “catastrophic situation,” he reiterated a firm red line: Tehran cannot acquire a nuclear weapon.
  - Citing the Islamic Republic’s recent enrichment at levels approaching weapons-grade and its clandestine nuclear activities, the president warned of “total obliteration” if it attempted to retaliate or move toward a nuclear weapon.
  - When asked if he would support Israel striking Iran, President Trump said, “Let’s see what happens,” adding again, “We can’t let them have a nuclear weapon.”

Provide Robust Support for the Iranian People
- Reinstate the Administration’s public diplomacy strategy to highlight the regime’s human rights abuses, supporting the aspirations of Iranians who oppose the regime’s policies.
- Expand communications access, including satellite internet and circumvention tools, to empower the Iranian people.

Don’t Mistake Tactical Pragmatism for Strategic Pragmatism
- President Trump’s memorandum stated, “It is the policy of the United States that Iran be denied a nuclear weapon and intercontinental ballistic missiles; that Iran’s network and campaign of regional aggression be neutralized; that the IRGC and its surrogates be disrupted, degraded, or denied access to the resources that sustain their destabilizing activities; and to counter Iran’s aggressive development of missiles and other asymmetric and conventional weapons capabilities.” Any negotiations with the regime must confront all of these concerns, not only its nuclear program.
  - In the pursuit of a nuclear deal, the Trump administration must not lose sight of the Islamic Republic’s fundamental need to create forms of cyclical antagonism with the United States. With this in mind, negotiations regarding proxies and the IRGC should take a maximalist approach, requiring near-disarmament from these groups.
  - Any negotiations must have a fixed and relatively short timeline, as the regime’s signature tactic is to use negotiations as a way to stall while its nuclear program continues to advance.

Image courtesy of UPI.