Brief Notes

Release of French Hostages Tied to Snapback: The French government has reportedly told the Islamic Republic in Iran that its decision on whether or not to support the triggering of UNSCR 2231’s snapback mechanism is tied to whether Tehran releases two French hostages, according to the state-run ISNA news agency. The snapback mechanism is the expedited process of reimposing previously lifted UN sanctions on the Islamic Republic per the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA). Learn more about the snapback mechanism and what its use would look like by reading NUFDI’s in-depth breakdown here. Civilian Shot by Intelligence Officers: On July 3, Islamic Republic Ministry of Intelligence officers fatally shot a resident of Sistan and Baluchestan Province while the individual was near an agricultural water pump. Security forces later attempted to confiscate the body but were stopped by local villagers. Officials have yet to provide a reason for the shooting. In 2024, at least 163 civilians were killed and 321 injured by indiscriminate Islamic Republic security force shootings in Iran, more than double the number recorded in 2019.

Tucker Carlson Interviews President Pezeshkian

In an interview with Tucker Carlson, President Masoud Pezeshkian claimed that Israel attempted to assassinate him, saying a location where he was attending a meeting was bombed based on Israeli intelligence, but due to “God’s will” he was not injured. Regarding fatwas issued by high-profile members of the regime’s clerical establishment calling for the assassination of President Donald Trump, Pezeshkian stated that clerical opinions are independent and “have nothing to do with the Islamic Republic or the Supreme Leader.” Pezeshkian further claimed that these fatwas are akin to condemnations rather than threats to an individual’s life. He denied that the regime has ever supported the assassination of a U.S. president, claiming such narratives are pushed by Netanyahu to provoke U.S. involvement in the region. Pezeshkian also posted on X: “The Supreme Leader approves of American investors coming to Iran and there are no obstacles to their activities…Unfortunately, it is Israel that does not allow peace in the region.” In the lead-up to the potential scheduling of another round of nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington, the Islamic Republic and its lobby in the West have dangled investment opportunities in Iran as an incentive for diplomacy.

Bounties Placed on President Trump’s Head

Over the past week, multiple senior clerics issued Fatwas (religious edicts) declaring that anyone who threatens the Supreme Leader is mohareb (an enemy of Allah). Some religious figures have taken the threat a step further and publicly offered bounties for the assassination of U.S. President Donald Trump. In Urmia, Mansour Emami, head of the Islamic Propagation Organization in West Azerbaijan Province, claimed a 100 billion toman (more than 1 million USD) reward had been set for Trump's killing. However, the organization’s main branch denied having set any official bounty. Meanwhile, prominent eulogist Mehdi Rasouli also called for Trump’s assassination during a Muharram mourning ceremony. A regime-pushed online campaign, “Covenant of Blood,” has been created to voice support for a potential assassination of President Trump and associated bounties, with an Iran-hosted domain (“.ir”) website launched to collect hypothetical donations, which are summed up and displayed on the homepage (currently at $23,477,321) next to a photo of Trump with a crosshair over his face.

The Islamic Republic at BRICS

At the BRICS Summit in Brazil, Islamic Republic Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned recent Israeli and U.S. strikes on the regime’s nuclear sites, calling them a “lethal blow” to diplomacy, international law, and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Urging BRICS to act as the “voice of the Global South” and “a staunch defender of international law,” Araghchi framed the position of the alliance as a counterweight to the United States and Israel on the global stage. During the summit, India joined BRICS in condemning Israeli and U.S. attacks against the Islamic Republic. Additionally, Araghchi met with Yisroel Dovid Weiss, a spokesperson of the fringe “anti-Zionist” group Neturei Karta who visited Tehran to attend a Holocaust denial conference during the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005–2013). Weiss reportedly condemned Israel’s strikes. President Trump posted on his Truth Social account today: “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

IRGC Promises 'Crushing Response' to Potential Ceasefire Violations

A senior IRGC commander warned Israel of a “crushing” retaliation if it violates the fragile June 24 ceasefire that ended the 12-Day War. Brig. Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi, the senior spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces, said Israel has only seen a limited portion of the regime’s military capabilities, stressing that underground missile stockpiles, drone arsenals, and key forces like the IRGC Navy and Quds Force have yet to be deployed. Shekarchi claimed the Islamic Republic dealt a “heavy blow” to Israel, that the regime was “victorious” in the 12-day conflict, and further warned of a “crushing, serious, and effective” response to any renewed aggression. Israel, meanwhile, has announced an “enforcement plan” to counter the regime’s missile and nuclear programs. Israeli Strikes Target Tehran-Backed Proxies On July 5, a strike in southern Lebanon hit an underground drone facility used by Hezbollah, killing a member of its special operations unit, the Radwan Force. In Yemen, the IDF targeted Houthi infrastructure, including ports in Hodeidah, Ras Isa, Salif, the Ras Khatib power station, and the Galaxy Leader vessel, which the Houthis took possession of in a much-covered 2023 hijacking. The Houthis had since turned Galaxy Leader into a propagandistic attraction, allowing influencers and locals to visit, and even shot a music video on its deck. In Syria, Israeli forces carried out their second operation in five days, arresting members of an IRGC-linked terror cell and seizing weapons and explosives.

On the Radar

Political activist Hossein Ronaghi, arrested on June 23 over an Instagram post made during the 12-day conflict with Israel, has been charged with “propaganda against the regime in favor of Israel” under Article 8 of the Islamic Republic’s new “Law on Confronting Israeli Actions,” a charge that could carry a prison sentence of up to five years.
Protests during June focused on economic and social grievances, including unpaid wages, job insecurity, low pensions, and poor working conditions. Retirees, oil and steel workers, students, and farmers staged rallies across the country. Families of death row inmates held anti-execution gatherings, while environmental and consumer protests also emerged. Telecom industry pensioners have also continued weekly demonstrations
Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli urged Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to act against rising antisemitism, condemning recent attacks in Melbourne, including an attempted synagogue arson carried out by an Iranian-born individual.
Today, U.S. Special Envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack said he was "unbelievably satisfied" with Lebanon’s response to a U.S. roadmap to disarm Hezbollah, calling the response “spectacular” after meeting Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. Details of the roadmap were not disclosed.