Brief Notes

E3 Condemns Threats to IAEA: The UK, Germany, and France condemned the Islamic Republic’s threats against IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and urged Tehran to resume cooperation with the agency in line with its legally binding obligations. Tehran Denies Plan for Talks with Washington: Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi dismissed reports of renewed nuclear talks with Washington. Ukraine Envoy Summoned: The Foreign Ministry has summoned Ukraine’s envoy to Tehran over what it called “his government's provocative remarks” regarding Israeli and U.S. strikes. Tehran Condemns Argentina Over AMIA Trial: The Foreign Ministry condemned Argentina’s decision to try several IRGC officials in absentia over the 1994 Buenos Aires Jewish center (AMIA) bombing. Al-Qaeda’s Yemen Branch Denounces Both Israel, Islamic Republic: Around two weeks after conflict erupted between Israel and the Islamic Republic, Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) condemned both sides and urged Sunni Muslims to remain neutral. With al-Qaeda's presumed leader, Sayf al-Adl, understood to be based in Iran, it is not clear whether the organization faces any constraints in its ability to explicitly criticize or denounce Tehran. Tehran Confirms Two More Officers Dead: Abolfazl Nikouei, a senior IRGC commander, and Mehdi Nemati, deputy for cultural and social affairs at the Islamic Republic’s Law Enforcement Intelligence Agency, were confirmed killed in Israeli missile strikes. Partial Airspace Restrictions Continue: Domestic routes to Tehran are still closed, while Iran’s western and central airspace have reopened only to “international transit flights.” Tehran Stock Exchange Deep in Red: The Tehran Stock Exchange lost 9% of its total value over the past three days, including a 2.5% drop today alone.

Deadly Fatwas Against President Trump

Two Iran-based Grand Ayatollahs, Nasser Makarem Shirazi and Hossein Noori Hamedani, yesterday issued separate Fatwas (religious edicts) declaring U.S. President Donald Trump “Mohareb” (an enemy of Allah), and called on “Muslims of the world” to kill him, promising them rewards befitting “warriors of Allah.” Read more: Grand Ayatollah Issues Fatwa Calling for Murder of President Trump Today, one of Khamenei's favorite orators, the senior cleric Alireza Panahian said, “When someone is declared Mohareb, every Muslim, anywhere in the world, must risk their lives and kill them. The cursed Trump has been declared Mohareb.”

IAEA: Tehran Can Resume Enrichment Soon

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said yesterday evening in an interview on Face the Nation, despite heavy damage from Israeli and U.S. strikes, parts of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear infrastructure and technical capability remain intact. He warned that the regime could start uranium enrichment within months or even sooner: “They can have, you know, in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium, or less than that.” Meanwhile, CIA Director John Ratcliffe told U.S. lawmakers that recent American strikes destroyed the Islamic Republic’s only metal conversion facility, delivering a major setback to Tehran’s nuclear program that may take years to rebuild.

Simmering Tensions Between Tehran, Baku

Relations between the Islamic Republic and Azerbaijan have soured again after allegations that Israel used Azerbaijani airspace to strike targets in Iran, which Baku has dismissed as “complete nonsense.” Tehran rejected parts of a recent Organization of Islamic Cooperation declaration which backed Baku’s stance against Armenia, emphasizing the Islamic Republic’s opposition to any language suggesting territorial changes. In response, Azerbaijan condemned the Islamic Republic’s position, accusing Tehran of distorting facts and fueling anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric. Additionally, Azerbaijani pro-government news sites are criticizing Supreme Leader Khamenei for “hostile policies” against Azerbaijan.

Post-Ceasefire Crackdown Continues

The Islamic Republic Majlis (parliament) passed a bill yesterday introducing increased penalties for “espionage” and “collaboration” with Israel, the U.S., and other “hostile states.” The law expands the definition of espionage to include it as a form of “Ifsad-e filarz” (spreading corruption on earth), and punishable by death for a wide range of activities, ranging from cyberattacks and military assistance to media content deemed harmful to national security, and even the use of unlicensed communication tools like Starlink. It also restricts the possession and use of drones. Security forces had arrested over 700 people as of 25 June, amid a campaign against alleged “collaborators” with Israel. The IRGC has threatened conscripts with execution for desertion. Meanwhile, the Judiciary has warned citizens that any public or online expression of joy over the regime’s military losses would result in prosecution. Following an Israeli strike which destroyed the gates of the notorious Evin Prison, security forces transported 120 political prisoners to undisclosed locations. A surge in regime harassment of Baha'i citizens has been reported across Iran, with over 12 Baha’i individuals detained in the past week. Security forces have also arrested Behnaz Mahjobi, sister of the slain Behnam Mahjoubi and a member of the Sufi minority Gonabadi Dervish. Yesterday, pensioners and government employees protested outside the Social Security Organization office in Rasht over unpaid pensions.

Quote of the Day

President Donald Trump: “Tell phony Democrat Senator Chris Coons that I am not offering Iran ANYTHING, unlike Obama, who paid them $Billions under the stupid 'road to a Nuclear Weapon JCPOA (which would now be expired!),' nor am I even talking to them since we totally OBLITERATED their Nuclear Facilities.” Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei: “The U.S. President has extremely exaggerated what happened, because he [politically] needs to. Anyone hearing his words could sense another reality beneath them. They failed to achieve anything and are exaggerating to cover up the truth.” Senior advisor to the Supreme Leader, Ali Larijani, boasts that the Islamic Republic absorbed recent military strikes and has now restabilized. He also claims he defied a threat he received via phone call from Israel, “Israeli military agents called me on Friday, telling me I had 12 hours to leave the country or I would face the same fate as [slain IRGC commanders].”