Brief Notes

Assassination of Israeli Ambassador Foiled by Mexican Authorities: U.S. and Israeli officials say Mexico’s security services foiled an Islamic Republic plot to assassinate Israel’s ambassador to Mexico, Einat Kranz-Neiger, last summer. The plan was allegedly orchestrated by Unit 11000 of the IRGC Quds Force, the same branch behind similar plots against targets in Australia, Europe, and the U.S. in recent months. The plot was reportedly initiated in late 2024 and led by an operative who specialized in recruiting agents across Latin America from Tehran’s embassy in Venezuela. By the time the operation was recognized by authorities, this operative had returned to Tehran. An unnamed U.S. official said the assassination plot was active through the first half of 2025 before being thwarted over the summer. Tehran Says Kazakhstan Abraham Accords Move Shows Israeli ‘Desperation’: Deputy Foreign Minister Manouchehr Moradi described Kazakhstan’s decision to join the Abraham Accords, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump yesterday, as “a symbolic attempt to help the Zionist regime escape global isolation.” Moradi noted that Kazakhstan and Israel have maintained full diplomatic ties since 1992, and said the move reflects “the desperation of the Zionist regime and its supporters.” He additionally urged regional countries “to uphold…their moral responsibility, in confronting genocide and gross violations of international law.” Only 32% of Projected Oil Income Received: Majlis (Parliament) Budget and Planning Committee Vice Chair Hadi Qavami said the state has only received about 1.51 quadrillion rials ($1.4bn) of the 4.74 quadrillion rials ($4.4bn) projected from oil revenues in the first six months of the Iranian year (ends in March). He said this left a gap of roughly 3.23 quadrillion rials ($3bn), amounting to just 32% of the predicted oil income. The Central Bank is intervening in the currency market and supporting stocks through major liquidity injection amid these strained oil revenues, potentially masking deeper impacts. Expansion of Chabahar Port Infrastructure: The Islamic Republic has expanded the construction of new infrastructure at Chabahar Port, adding warehouses, railways, and roads to boost trade capacity with regional partners, particularly Afghanistan. The port serves as a desired alternative to Pakistani trade routes, which have faced closures. The spokesman for Afghanistan’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce said, “Thank God, we continue to have trade with India and Arab countries, particularly with UAE, via Chabahar Port and Bandar-e Abbas.” FM Spokesperson Claims ‘Irrefutable Evidence’ of U.S. Involvement in 12-Day War: Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei accused the United States of direct involvement in the initiation of the 12-Day War, citing President Trump’s recent statement, primarily reported on by Tehran- and Beijing-affiliated outlets as well as Al Jazeera, that he was “very much in charge” of the operation. In a post on X, Baghaei said Trump’s statement “constitutes irrefutable evidence of America’s direct involvement and active complicity in Israel’s unprovoked act of aggression against Iran.” He demanded that the U.S. be held accountable for “this flagrant violation.”

Tehran Sets Sights on Iraqi Elections

Shia militias in Iraq are mounting their biggest political push yet ahead of the November 11 parliamentary elections, seeking to further cement their battlefield clout into Tehran-aligned formal power within Iraqi institutions. Operating under the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) umbrella, U.S.-designated terrorist groups such as Kataib Hezbollah (KH), Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS), and others are investing heavily in campaigns through affiliated political entities despite Iraqi laws that bar foreign-sponsored or armed groups from engaging in politics. In recent months, the militias have expanded their outreach to clerics, tribal leaders, and local influencers. Militia leaders frame support for their candidates as “a new resistance climate” against U.S. and Israeli influence, portraying the election as “a white battle whose weapon is the vote and whose field is the ballot box.” Washington has pressured Baghdad to absorb or dismantle the PMF’s IRGC-aligned wings. Iraqi activists have filed legal complaints demanding enforcement of laws barring armed factions from running, citing voter intimidation in past elections. Still, the militias’ deep networks, financing, and alliances with Prime Minister Sudani’s coalition may secure them lasting leverage, entrenching Tehran’s influence inside Iraq’s political system.

On the Radar

A military court in Hamadan Province has upheld a decision to drop all charges against three IRGC officers who killed two young, unarmed men, Mohammad Mehdi Abaei and Alireza Karbasi, at a vehicle checkpoint on July 1, while security measures were intensified after the 12-Day War. Authorities previously claimed the shooters were volunteer Basij members, but leaked court documents show that the accused are IRGC officers. The regime has banned the victims’ families from speaking to the media, while state-run outlets attempt to label the two young men as “agents of Israel.”
One of Tehran’s Friday prayer imams, Mohammad Hassan Aboutorabifard, urged swift reforms to the Islamic Republic’s banking system in response to the collapse of Ayandeh Bank, which he claimed was responsible for 42% of the financial imbalance in the country’s banking network. Speaking at Tehran University, he blamed insider loans, irrational interest rates, and non-productive deposits for the crisis, calling Ayandeh’s negative 140% capital adequacy ratio and massive overdrafts evidence of systemic dysfunction.
Over 80,000 Afghans have re-entered Afghanistan from Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey in the past nine days. A spokesperson for the Taliban Ministry of Refugees said, “We believe that this type of treatment goes against international laws and principles. It will also hurt relations between countries and create hatred between nations. It will not serve any country. We call on international organizations to play their roles and not allow host countries to treat Afghan refugees like this.”
During a meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif in Islamabad today, Majles (Parliament) Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that, in order to reach the $10bn trade goal set between the two countries, further action is necessary to boost bilateral banking, bartering, and free trade. Ghalibaf urged the removal of customs barriers and the enhancement of border markets, saying, “Just as we can benefit from your agricultural products, you can also benefit from our energy capabilities.” Ghalibaf thanked Pakistan for supporting the Islamic Republic during the 12-Day War, said Tehran would not forget this, and said the Islamic Republic is ready to mediate tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Vice President Shina Ansari, head of the regime’s Department of Environmental Protection, is attending the opening ceremony of the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, or COP30, in Brazil.