Throughout the last week, Persian Twitter has been a hotbed of opinions and videos dissecting the officially announced results of the Islamic Republic's election. Despite the announced turnout rates of 40 and 50 percent in the first and second rounds of the election respectively, viral hashtags like #ضریب۳, meaning multiplied by three, or #10PercentRegime show that the Iranian people believe otherwise. These hashtags discuss the Iranian people’s several arguments as to why the regime’s reported election results are fraudulent, such as the viral theory that the reported vote counts of the first round were inflated by multiplying the actual results of each candidate by three. While the statistical argument about the improbability of the numbers being multiples of three is intriguing, it is crucial to recognize the infinite potential for finding such anomalies. Although this specific pattern is less compelling as concrete evidence of manipulation, the significance of this observation lies in what it reveals about public sentiment in Iran. The rapid spread of this narrative on Twitter is a testament to the deep-seated mistrust among the populace toward official announcements. Regardless of the statistical validity of the anomaly, the swift questioning and doubt of the official figures highlight the current state of public trust in authorities and the speed at which such sentiments can spread. We should consider the context of these sentiments: a lack of transparency, a history of deception, repression, censorship, and vast corruption, which would consequently lead to erosion of trust. Throughout its 45 years of authority, the Islamic Republic has operated with the least transparency, so even publicly published documents like the fiscal year budget also do not show transparent sources of expenditure and income. On the other hand, state-controlled media (IRIB) suppress legitimate information and amplify propaganda, leading people to seek alternative explanations, often in the form of conspiracy theories. Today, artists like Toomaj Salehi are in prison for their anti-regime rap songs, and political dissidents are in line to get executed for their beliefs. The Islamic Republic regime’s elections are neither free nor fair. Suspicion of election rigging or corruption undermines the regime and “elected” government's perceived legitimacy. Since the government came to power through non-democratic means, its very foundation is viewed as illegitimate, prompting ongoing suspicion. All said, the regime’s constant lies revealed over the last 45 years have created a deep-rooted mistrust between the nation and the state Detailed below are some, but not all, of the recent cases in which the regime’s provided narratives were proven false:

COVID-19 Statistics:
- During the COVID-19 pandemic, the regime was accused of underreporting the number of cases and deaths. Internal documents leaked to the media suggested that the real numbers were significantly higher than the official reports.
- The discrepancy between official statistics and independent reports from health workers and citizens led to widespread skepticism about the government's handling of the pandemic. This situation highlighted the ongoing mistrust between the state and the public, as people relied more on unofficial sources for accurate information.
Downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752:
- On January 8, 2020, the IRGC shot down a Ukrainian International Airlines passenger plane, killing all 176 people on board. Initially, Iranian officials denied responsibility, attributing the crash to technical failures.
- Once evidence, chiefly provided by Iranian citizens on-the-ground, surfaced that an IRGC missile was responsible for the downing of the plane, the regime was forced to admit the truth. This reversal and initial denial caused outrage and further diminished the regime's credibility. The incident underscored the regime's propensity for obfuscation in times of crisis and its impact on public trust.
Environmental and Air Quality Data:
- The IR has been accused of underreporting pollution levels and environmental degradation. Independent assessments often show much higher levels of pollution than official reports. Citizens, especially those in heavily polluted cities like Tehran, experience the direct consequences of poor air quality, which contradicts official improvement claims. This ongoing discrepancy contributes to the public perceiving the regime as untrustworthy, going so far as to lie to the Iranian people about the day-to-day realities that they experience firsthand.

These examples demonstrate how historical instances of deception by the Islamic Republic contribute to the current climate of suspicion and conspiracy theories. The public's skepticism towards official narratives is rooted in a long history of misinformation and disinformation, with new events constantly reinforcing the illegitimacy of the state's announcements. Since the regime has a history of lying and manipulating facts, people are more likely to disbelieve official narratives and assume the worst, fueling conspiracy theories that could not be blamed on ignorance but rather on a political and historical awareness of its believers. -- Armita Hooman is a NUFDI Summer Fellow.

COVID-19 Statistics:

Downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752:

Environmental and Air Quality Data: